-<titleInfo>
<title>Causal Inference from Series of Events</title>
</titleInfo>
<abstract>Recent years have witnessed an increased interest,
both in statistics and in the social sciences, in time
dependent models as a vehicle for the causal interpretation
of series of events. The Humean and empiricist tradition in
the philosophy of science uses the constant temporal order
of cause and effect as a decisive delineation of causal
processes from mere coincidences. To mimic the philosophical
distinction, series of events are modelled as dynamic
stochastic processes and the precedence of cause over effect
is expressed through conditional expectations given the
history of the process and the history of the causes. A main
technical tool in this development is the concept of
conditional independence. In this article we examine some
difficulties in the application of the approach within
empirical social research. Specifically, the role of
probabilistic concepts of causality and of conditional
independence, the nature of events that reasonalby qualify
as causes or effects, and the time order used in empirical
research are considered.</abstract>
-<name>
<namePart>Pötter, Ulrich</namePart>
</name>
-<name>
<namePart>Blossfeld, H.-P.</namePart>
</name>
-<location>
<url>http://www.stat.ruhr-uni-bochum.de/papers/cause2.ps</url>
</location>
-<originInfo>
<dateCreated encoding="w3cdtf">2000-06-01</dateCreated>
</originInfo>
-<physicalDescription>
<internetMediaType>application/postscript</internetMediaType>
</physicalDescription>
<classification authority="IZSOZ">10105</classification>
<classification authority="IZSOZ">10102</classification>
-<subject authority="IZSOZ">
<topic>Analyse</topic>
</subject>
-<subject authority="IZSOZ">
<topic>Erklärung</topic>
</subject>
-<subject authority="IZSOZ">
<topic>Inferenz</topic>
</subject>
-<subject authority="IZSOZ">
<topic>Kausalität</topic>
</subject>
-<subject authority="IZSOZ">
<topic>Methodenforschung</topic>
</subject>
-<subject authority="IZSOZ">
<topic>Modellanalyse</topic>
</subject>
-<subject authority="IZSOZ">
<topic>Wissenschaftsgeschichte</topic>
</subject>
</mods>